It’s jobs day and Trump is weighing tying the debt ceiling increase to Harvey aid.
Jobs day
All eyes are on the August labor market report at 8:30 a.m.
Eastern Time, which will likely set the tone for the trading week to
come. Economists forecast job growth of 180,000, the unemployment rate
to remain unchanged at 4.3 percent, a 16-year low, and average hourly
earnings up 0.2 percent month-on-month. The latter metric is capturing
more market attention in light of mediocre wage growth even as the labor
market tightens. One note of caution: for six years running, economists
have consistently overestimated August payrolls. Manufacturing and vehicle-sales data are also due out today.
Debt limit
President Donald Trump is mulling attaching
an increase in the U.S. debt limit to an initial $5.95 billion
disaster-aid request for Hurricane Harvey, people familiar with the
matter said. Officials have kicked off talks with congressional leaders
about the approach, and the White House request could be issued as early
as today, in a move aimed at easing the early passage of a debt-limit
increase. Trump is also seeking to decouple the debt issue from a
potential fight in Congress over funding for his proposed border wall
that risks a government shutdown, according to one of the officials.
Investors at the short-end of the Treasury curve are demanding higher
compensation to hedge against default risk.
U.S. market rollercoaster
Ten-year Treasury yields are in the throes of a spirited a bull run that's taken Wall Street off guard, adding juice to the 'Goldilocks' global market rally. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was broadly unchanged after a decline Thursday spurred by comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that a weaker currency yields trading benefits. As global primary markets go back to school, appetite for U.S. junk bonds
will be tested after investors soured on the asset class this summer.
U.S. tech stocks are also back at record highs, helping the S&P 500
Index head for a fifth day of gains.
Markets rise
European shares climbed, with media and mining companies extending gains. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is up 0.8 percent, as of 5:50 a.m. ET.
The LME Index of six industrial metals soared to the highest in almost
three years, led by copper. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1
percent, while the MSCI World Index notched a 0.2 percent gain, the
highest in more than three weeks.
Brexit battle
The European Union and the British government remain at loggerheads
over the U.K.'s financial liabilities, the enforcement of citizens'
rights and the sequencing of talks, after another round of talks over
the country’s exit from the union failed to secure a breakthrough. The
tone of discussions remains acrimonious, with International Trade
Secretary Liam Fox accusing the EU of seeking to blackmail Britain into paying a divorce bill. The stalled talks are piling pressure on Prime Minister Theresa May.